Five questions about Missouri State hoops

Yes, we are less than 24 hours away from the most highly anticipated Missouri State men’s basketball season in recent memory. Sure, some of the Barry Hinson teams were talented, but none were picked second in the Missouri Valley Conference’s preseason polls.

That’s right, no Bears team since the Sweet 16 team of Danny Moore, Kevin Ault, etc. that was led by Steve Alford has been picked to finish this high in the MVC race. It’s too bad the Missouri Valley Conference isn’t a two-bid NCAA Tournament league any more, isn’t it? Or is it? While it means little now, ESPN.com’s Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has the Bears in the No. 68 spot in his season-opening NCAA Tournament predictions. Sure, 68 doesn’t sound as nice as 64, but that would mean that the Bears have a Muggsy Bogues-sized amount of preseason juice, right?

But with any season approaching, there are questions. I’ve broken it down in five areas that are critical to the season.

1. Depth

Ironically, the strength of this Missouri State season was supposed to be depth. Bringing back all five of the season-ending starters, and only losing two players (Justin Fuehrmeyer and Ryan Jehle) was going to leave the Bears with a talented and experienced roster. But then, wacky things started to happen.

Jerome Jones decided to transfer. Keith Pickens had another knee surgery, meaning he’ll miss the entire 2010-11 season. After his near-fatal car accident, Michael Porter transferred to Southeast Missouri State to be closer to his family. Now, you add that number to lost letterwinners to five, and that margin for error instantly became as thin as Peyton Manning and Justin Timberlake in those Sony 3D commercials. That means, the returning core now consists of returning starting seniors Adam Leonard, Nafis Ricks, Will Creekmore, Jermaine Mallett, junior starter Kyle Weems and big guy juniors Caleb Patterson and Isaiah Rhine off the bench.

That’s it.

Instead of having a seasoned rotation of eight or nine, it’s seven. Now, I’ve heard plenty of coaches say that depth is overrated, but one injury could send the season into a tailspin. Porter and Jones would have filled minutes at backup forward spots. Who is going to do that now? What about the guard rotation? There is none.

Well, at least, none with experience. And that’s where the freshmen come in, with a ton of pressure on their shoulders. The one under the most duress might be 6-foot-4 freshman guard/forward Nathan Scheer. Considered a recruiting coup for the Bears, Scheer has the ability to shoot the ball, as well as score, demonstrated by his 21.8 points per game as a senior at St. Francis Borgia, a Class 4 powerhouse. But he is the backup swingman. That’s tough to ask a true freshman, no matter how talented they are. If Leonard, Mallett or Weems get into foul trouble, Scheer will be there to pick up the minutes. There is a little bit of versatility with Mallett and Weems, being able to share time at the 2-3-4 slots, but they can’t play all-game-ever-game.

6-4 freshman guard Corey Copeland will fight for time in that rotation, too, but he’s listed at 174 pounds, compared to Scheer’s 191. The Fort Smith, Ark. freshman southpaw will need to mature in a hurry, but will likely be thrown into some tough situations early. He’s not as gifted of a scorer as Scheer (15.8 ppg), but if ready, could bail the Bears out at times.

Freshman dynamo Aaron Cooper, who is generously listed at 5-10 will be expected to spell Ricks, but at times last season, the coaching staff wasn’t afraid to use Leonard as the de facto point guard. If Cooper can tailor his speed and quickness this early in his career, it will save some wear and tear on the seniors.

And yes, you’re math is correct. There are no sophomores on this year’s Bears active roster. Weird. And sad. In all, the Bears only have 11 players on the roster.

2. Will the Bears’ experience matter?

Those who follow the Missouri Valley hear it all the time, especially from the national media and tastemakers, and it goes something like this:

These mid-major programs cause the major programs problems when the mid major is a team full of seniors. They know how to play together, and when things get tough, experience can beat out talent.

Will that be the case for this season’s Bears squad? They’ll have four seniors starters, and an experienced Kyle Weems, who could be in line for Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year status, if things go well. But for one to have “experience,” don’t they have to have overcome adversity? That’s where you start to wonder if the expectations are too much. Just like last season’s 10-0 start, most of last year’s success came at home. And not that it’s some type of revelation, but MSU was 4-9 on the road last year.

To get where they want (and need?) to go, that needs to be above .500 on the road in the conference, something far beyond the 2-25 in league road games the past three seasons. Of course, these are the same guys who lost the heartbreaker at Arkansas in overtime, the close game at Wichita State and that gutwrenching ESPN game at JQH Arena with eventual Sweet 16-bound Northern Iowa. They’ve been through the losses, but can they learn from them, and come back stronger? That’s what experience is supposed to provide. It’s up to them how they will utilize it.

3. Point guard play

I’m going to be honest, I enjoy watching Nafis Ricks play. He’s a confident guard who can get to the basket and create for his teammates. But with Justin Fuehrmeyer gone, and for all of Fury’s shortcomings, he knew how to incorporate his teammates into the offense. Can Ricks do that?

Ricks, a senior, was second on the team in assists last season with 2.6 per game and it’s not an eyepopping stat. But over the final 11 games of the season, he averaged 4.4 per game and had six games of five or more. That’s more like it, and what should happen this season. If he can continue to break defenders off the dribble, great things will happen.

But what about when he’s not on the floor? He’s got to sit out sometime, right? Who is going to get those minutes? Sure, Adam Leonard can slide over and play some functional point guard, but can he do that and be a lethal injection-type shooter? Is that where freshman Aaron Cooper is going to come in? Maybe Nick Valla, the 6-2 freshman who’s already earning a tough-guy reputation in practice, grabs a few quality minutes. But, can they be trusted on the road in the conference against a quality opponent? That’s the real concern. That, and burning out Ricks as the season wears on.

Ricks averaged 18.8 minutes per game last season, with Leonard leading the way at 32.7. That’s why Ricks told me during media day that he focused on getting himself in much better shape.

4. Who will emerge as the star? Or, do they need one?

I asked this question last year, and I think it still applies. There is no denying the talent on this year’s team. Five players scored more than 7.4 points per game. Three were in double figures, led by Kyle Weems’ 13.6. Adam Leonard was right there with 13.0. But I’ll still ask the question:

When the game is on the line, who do you want taking the shot?

Each has their own merit, but there’s no established late-in-the-game alpha dog. I’m not coming from an Allen Iverson-type ballhog scenario. I’m simply saying, one shot to win the game, what do you do? Run a play with multiple options? Sure, that would be a likely scenario, but only because the Bears don’t have an outstanding one-on-one player.

Or do they? That’s the beauty of college basketball. How do you feel about last year’s team? In my mind, I have the following profiles of the starting five:

• Kyle Weems: Versatile scorer. Has good mid-range game that extends to the 3-point line. Not overly explosive off the dribble, but is savvy enough to get to the free throw line.
• Adam Leonard: Great moving without the ball. Uncanny ability to knock down tough shots. Not going to take you off the dribble.
• Nafis Ricks: Great at getting to the basket and to the free throw line. Not a great outside shooter and needs to make some to keep defenses honest.
• Jermaine Mallett: Versatile scorer. Good from the perimeter and off the dribble, and not afraid to dunk on defenders. Only drawback? He’s not assertive enough.
• Will Creekmore: Decent low-post moves. Has ability to draw defenders off the block with perimeter jump shot.

But that’s just how I remember them. I’m not expecting dramatic improvement, but wouldn’t you be disappointed if they didn’t improve, even if it was just a little bit. Maybe one of them emerges from the summer as a vastly improved player. The way we remember them, none of them are flawless offensive players, but each has a certain skill set on the offensive end. What if they take that and improve on it? That might save some heartburn-infusing moments.

Or, while I don’t believe it, I would listen to the argument that the Bears don’t need one. Still, the question remains. Do you need one of them to become the go-to guy, or can you depend on the matchup? (Or, will Caleb Patterson take a huge step forward? Don’t be surprised if this happens. He might be the Bears’ best offensive player.)

5. Coaching

I don’t want this to come off the wrong way, but I think it’s fair to ask the question: Is Cuonzo Martin a good coach?

He’s proven he’s a shrewd recruiter and has found cohesive pieces that fit his defensive aggressive system, and has done it in a short amount of time. You can tell the players respect him and play hard for him. Those things, he has handled well. The only thing I’m not sure of is the Xs and Os coaching.

I’m not saying I am smart enough to tell the difference between great play design and poor play design, or other strategy. We obviously know good and bad when we see it, but sometimes it’s not that easy. He has two years of head coaching experience — that’s it. I’m not saying he can’t coach, but with a talented roster like he has, it’s going to be easier to place the blame and the spotlight is going to be hotter and more focused than ever.

Expectations are high, and people are excited. The scene is set. Now, it’s time to sit back and watch. It all starts tonight with Oral Roberts.

(Don’t miss our Live Blog from JQH Arena, for both men’s and women’s games, starting with the Lady Bears at 5:35 p.m.

Other preseason reading:

• Springfield News-Leader: Three questions about MSU
• SNL: Big men bonanza
• SNL: Defense
• SNL: Nafis Ricks
• SNL: Big expectations for Bears