As tough as this is for me to say, let’s get this out of the way.
There is no way the St. Louis Cardinals will make the playoffs this season.
Why? Because every sign points to how they will, and that doesn’t even factor in this weird feeling that some type of Matt Balliday-type jinx is heading St. Louis’ way. (More on that in a moment.) But seriously, after winning the NL Central with a 91-71 record last season, the Cardinals return every impact player back from the playoff team.
They have the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols. They went out and guaranteed certified protection for him in Matt Holliday, by signing him to a 7-year, $120 million contract in January, and also still have Ryan Ludwick, who looks to be a legit No. 5 hitter. There’s no doubt, it’s a Meat Lovers meat of the order with enough competent pieces to get on base in front of them.
Plus, the Cardinals return the No. 2 AND No. 3 finishers in last year’s Cy Young voting. Chris Carpenter pitched more than 190 innings for the first time since 2006. Looking back, the 34-year-old righthander had a 2.24 ERA over 28 starts and 192 2/3 innings, striking out 144 and walking only 38. His WHIP was 1.007 and he allowed 0.3 home runs per nine innings. (And he wasn’t the best pitcher in the NL? Hmmm). Combine that with the breakout season from 27-year-old righthander Adam Wainwright, who pitched a National League-high 233 innings, had a 2.63 ERA over 34 starts with a 1.21 WHIP, 212 strikeouts and 66 walks. There’s not a better pitching duo in the NL.
The Cardinals also have a Hall of Fame manager, payroll flexibility because of a decent enough farm system that’s provided enough role players to fill the lineup and bench, as well as a fan base that exceeded attendance numbers during a recession. So why did I italicize my statement earlier?
It all has to be too good to be true. The Cardinals just aren’t frontrunners to win the NL Central, most of the suits that prognosticate for a living are assuming St. Louis will easily take the division. Uh-oh. It just feels too good to be true, for my taste. Personally, I haven’t felt this good about a Cardinals season in a long time. There are few question marks that have hefty relevance and there are all of those points from above that should make me feel secure. I’m not even sweating the stickiness of the Mark McGwire saga that’s about to pop off.
That leads me to the No. 1 reason why I’m petrified of this season — Matt Balliday.
Matt Holliday, meet Matt Balliday
Uh-oh. Holliday forgot to catch the ball.
Dating back to when he was with the Rockies, I was a charter member of the bring-Matt Holliday-to-St. Louis cause. Power hitter in his prime and about to get paid like it, high character guy, not going to kill you defensively, It’s like he’s the baseball version of a Smart Phone. Why wouldn’t you have one, as long as you can afford it?
The Cardinals parted with prospects and brought him to St. Louis. He was better than expected. Over a span of 235 at-bats, Holliday turned into what Chuck Norris would look like playing baseball. He hit .353 over 235 at-bats, with 13 home runs and an OPS of 1.023. For context, Ted Williams had a career OPS of 1.116. Holliday was a revelation, one that helped propel the Cardinals to the playoffs and give Pujols a Bash Brother in crime.
Then, the playoffs started. Already down one game to none to the Los Angeles Dodgers after Carpenter was relatively flat, Wainwright spun a gem. He allowed one run over eight innings, striking out seven. After 109 pitches, he was pulled in favor of the Cardinals’ finesse bullpen. After Trever Miller recorded an out, closer Ryan Franklin came on, getting one more and carving out a 2-2 count on Dodger first baseman James Loney.
That’s when Matt Holliday turned into Matt Balliday.
Saying he lost Loney’s liner in the lights, Holliday never got his glove on the ball, and the ball nailed him squarely in the, um, Balliday. The Dodgers rallied off Franklin, winning the game. Season over.
Just like Flash Forward, this is how Cardinal fans felt after Matt Holliday failed to catch that line drive during the playoffs.
There the Cardinals were, one strike away from evening the series, to being down 2-0 in a Best of 5 series. It was like Cardinal fans across the nation were struck by blackout, just like on ABC’s Flash Forward. Maybe that’s where I’m getting my Balliday hesitancy. Maybe my two-minute vision showed me that the Cardinals won’t win the Central this season. Or maybe they will. All I know is it’s been nearly six months and I can’t stop from replaying that in my mind, especially every time I hear Matt Holliday’s name. Naturally, the Cards were swept after losing the next game. Will there be a hangover from that?
Seriously, the new multimillionaire made that big of a gaffe on the national stage. Everyone saw it. There has to be some bad luck with that, considering the routine nature of the play. I’m scared to death of this, similarly to the how I’ll feel with the Rams having the No. 1 pick in the draft. — I just think they’re going to screw this up, somehow.
When searching for the Matt Holliday incident online, I found this gem. This pretty much sums it up.
Other storylines
• Can the starting rotation really be this good? — We already got out the shammies for the washing of Carpenter and Wainwright, but the addition of free agent RHP Brad Penny makes the indoctrination of 23-year-old LHP Jaime Garcia eaiser. Not that Penny and RHP Kyle Lohse are world beaters, but it would be hard to find a better 1-4 combo in the National League.
Former SGF Cardinal Jaime Garcia pitcher is in the parent club's starting rotation
• SGF Cardinals everywhere — The Springfield Cardinals are in their sixth season, and there are more alumni on the parent club than ever before. Garcia will be the first SGF Card to open in the STL starting rotation. The bench is littered with former Baby Birds. The Cardinals minor league Player of the Year Allen Craig made the bench with his bat, plus his defensive versatility (see: not good enough to play one position, but could be competent at 1B/3B/LF/RF. Joe Mather is back on the big league club, mostly because the organization loves his athletic ability and feels he could be a backup center fielder. I’m not sold, but I’d love to see his bat in the lineup. Outfielder Nick Stavinoha has slugged his way onto the roster, and four of the seven relievers out of the bullpen played at Hammons Field at one time: Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Blake Hawksworth and Kyle McClellan. It’s exciting for all of the local fans who support the program through the minor leagues.
• Third base — Can David Freese thrive with 450-500 at-bats? Remember, the fruits of the Jim Edmonds trade to San Diego, Freese was in the exact same situation this season as he was last season. No legit third baseman standing in his way, open competition, and while Freese didn’t win the job outright last year, he saw some MLB at-bats until he was demoted to work on his game. After suffering some injuries, he went on a rehab assignment, coming through SGF last season. During his minor league tour, he had 12 home runs in 227 at-bats. He he gets that AB total to 500, will those numbers double? Wouldn’t you take 24 home runs from a guy who makes the league minimum? That’s what the Cards are hoping for.
• Additions: IF/OF Felipe Lopez (1-year, $1.75 million), IF/OF Allen Craig (2009 minor league Player of the Year)
• Live Blogs — Don’t forget, the TAGsgf.com crew will be Live Blogging certain St. Louis Cardinals games, as well as SGF Cardinals and KC Royals games. The first game will be Monday’s STL opener at Cincinnati. It’s the perfect companion to watch a game a with, or as a way to keep up with the game if you’re not near a TV or radio.
Projecting Tony LaRussa’s opening day lineup
2B – Skip Schumaker
SS – Brendan Ryan
1B – Albert Pujols
LF – Matt Holliday
RF – Ryan Ludwick
CF – Colby Rasmus
C – Yadier Molina
3B – David Freese
Pitcher (Yes, I believe the Pitcher Hitting Eighth is on permanent vacation.)
Bench – Allen Craig, Joe Mather, Nick Stavinoha, Felipe Lopez, Jason LaRue.
Rotation – Chris Carpenter (R), Adam Wainwright (R), Brad Penny (R), Kyle Lohse (R), Jaime Garcia (L)
Bullpen – Mitchell Boggs (R), Blake Hawksworth (R), Kyle McClellan (S), Jason Motte (1), Trever Miller (L), Dennys Reyes (L)
My opening day nine
2B – Skip Schumaker
CF – Colby Rasmus
1B – Albert Pujols
LF – Matt Holliday
RF – Ryan Ludwick
3B – David Freese
C – Yadier Molina
SS – Brendan Ryan
Pitcher spot
Projected AL Central finish:
St. Louis 95-67
Chicago 90-72
Cincinnati 80-82
Pittsburgh 63-99
Milwaukee 62-100
Links & Media:
This was an interview we conducted with Freese when he was at JQH Arena for the Cardinals Caravan in January.
A preseason interview with former Cardinal Tom Pagnozzi
The 2006 World Series championship celebration
Allen Vaughan is a national award-winning reporter and writer who lives in Springfield. After leaving the Springfield News-Leader in September of 2009, he has taken his affinity for sports in the Ozarks and tried to raise the bar in terms of innovative journalism. Want to get in touch with Allen? E-mail him at Allen@TAGsgf.com. You can follow him on Twitter here or on Facebook here.
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